Why a trader cares
Natural gas is highly seasonal. A storage or curve observation means little without its calendar context, weather pressure, and supply-demand mechanism.
MarketsNatural Gas
Natural gas workflowLive
Read natural gas through seasonality, balances, and forecast change.
The gas workflow combines Henry Hub price and curve history with EIA storage, weather demand, production and demand balances, LNG and pipelines, shipping, and positioning.
Question answered
Is the gas balance tightening or loosening relative to seasonal expectations?
Built for more than one level of market experience
Start simple. Keep the professional context.
Every screen preserves the instrument, period, unit, source, and limitation while explaining why the evidence matters.
Start here01
Identify the observation before interpreting it.
Read the instrument, unit, timestamp, period, and source first. A weekly stock estimate and a five-minute futures quote answer different questions.
Desk read02
Compare level, change, and historical context.
The current value matters less without its direction of travel, seasonal baseline, related markets, and the catalyst that moved expectations.
Professional use03
Demand cross-source confirmation and preserve uncertainty.
Treat every dataset as evidence with a release lag, methodology, revision risk, and known blind spots. The workflow should be reproducible after the fact.
Component guide
What each component means—and how a desk reads it.
Definitions stay plain enough to learn from, while the desk read preserves the mechanism, cadence, and source a professional user expects.
Henry Hub and seasonal curve
In plain English
The front, second, and sixth contracts are read with their actual delivery months because winter and shoulder-season gas are not interchangeable.
Professional read
An M1-M6 spread can reflect seasonal contract composition as much as immediate scarcity, so compare it with seasonally similar observations.
- Cadence
- Five-minute price refresh; daily curve history
- Source
- Licensed market feeds and listed futures history
Working gas in storage
In plain English
Lower-48 and regional storage levels, weekly injections or withdrawals, and calendar-aligned five-year references describe the inventory cushion.
Professional read
A 50 Bcf injection is tight or loose only relative to season, weather, production, LNG demand, and prior expectations.
- Cadence
- Weekly EIA release
- Source
- EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Weather demand
In plain English
HDD and CDD translate temperatures into heating and cooling pressure, with forecast changes separated from historical observations.
Professional read
Gas often responds to the revision in expected degree days, not merely the absolute forecast printed today.
- Cadence
- Daily history and forecast refresh
- Source
- Open-Meteo inputs using an Enerlytics Lower-48 proxy
Supply and demand balance
In plain English
Production, power burn, industrial/residential demand, pipeline trade, LNG feedgas, and outages explain how the storage path may change.
Professional read
Fast estimates are useful for direction; slower official monthly data anchor the structural picture and revisions.
- Cadence
- Daily estimates and monthly official releases, depending on series
- Source
- EIA and normalized operational inputs
LNG and positioning
In plain English
LNG carrier activity, terminal context, and CFTC managed money connect international demand and participant crowding to the domestic balance.
Professional read
A terminal outage can reduce Henry Hub demand while a weather event simultaneously affects supply—location and mechanism decide the net effect.
- Cadence
- AIS every two hours; CFTC weekly
- Source
- Terrestrial AIS and CFTC
What data it uses
The evidence underneath the screen.
- Henry Hub futures and curve history
- Seasonally aligned EIA storage
- HDD/CDD history and forecast-aware weather context
- Production, demand, LNG, and pipeline flows
- LNG carriers, CFTC, news, models, and theses
How Enerlytics interprets it
Method before conclusion.
- 01
Compares storage against corresponding seasonal periods
- 02
Treats M1-M6 differently from crude because contract seasons matter
- 03
Combines weather changes with physical balance evidence
How it connects
Evidence moves through a workflow.
- 01Price
- 02Seasonal curve
- 03Storage
- 04Weather
- 05Supply and demand
- 06Positioning
- 07Thesis
What not to infer
Backwardation does not automatically mean a tight gas market; the delivery months and seasonal structure must be considered.
Worked market workflow
Example: deciding whether gas is tightening
Natural gas requires a seasonal balance, not a one-variable weather or storage shortcut.
- 1
Anchor the season
Identify the actual delivery months in M1, M2, and M6 and the current injection or withdrawal season.
- 2
Read storage
Compare the level and weekly change with the same calendar period over prior years.
- 3
Update demand
Measure forecast HDD/CDD revisions, LNG feedgas, and power-burn pressure.
- 4
Update supply
Review production and pipeline constraints or outages.
- 5
Confirm
Ask whether curve, storage trajectory, and positioning tell a consistent story.
Methodology and limitations
Trust comes from showing the seams.
Calendar-aligned five-year references
The official EIA method compares corresponding calendar days using interpolated daily storage values. Enerlytics avoids mixing unrelated winter and summer weeks into one rolling average.
Proxy transparency
The current degree-day system is an eight-city weighted Lower-48 proxy. It is useful directional context, not a substitute for a commercial population-weighted weather product.
Verified production coverage
Coverage reviewed against the production data store on October 2, 2026. Live totals continue to grow.
- Weekly Lower-48 and regional storage history extends back to 2010.
- Henry Hub M1/M2/M6 history and derived spreads extend back to 2023; forecast degree-day observations are stored separately from history.
Primary references
Enerlytics links the underlying methodology so customers can distinguish a product interpretation from the source definition.
See the product
A real Enerlytics workflow—not a conceptual mockup.
Weekly research, recaps, and video explainers
See the evidence used in a real market conversation.
Enerlytics publishes weekly market recaps, component explainers, and thesis walkthroughs. For Natural Gas, the recurring desk question is: How did the storage trajectory, forecast revision, LNG demand, and seasonal curve combine in this week's gas move?
Weekly market notes →Written recaps tied to the same evidence workflow.Public signal reviews →Current states with accountability and limitations.Video recaps on X →Short market recaps, chart walkthroughs, and thesis updates.Explainers on Threads →Component education and the reasoning behind each market read.
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