Monday Setup
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
Source post
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.04$/bbl with a -0.22 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.04$/bbl 5-session move: -0.22 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->
Follow-up context
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
Prompt structure is often a cleaner physical-balance read than flat price alone because it reacts faster to near-term barrel tightness or relief.
More notes in the system
Wednesday EIA Check
Commercial US crude stocks are at 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w). SPR sits at 325.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1059.7 MMbbl. Commercial: 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w) SPR: 325.7 MMbbl (-5.5 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->
Monday Setup
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.28$/bbl with a +0.13 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.28$/bbl 5-session move: +0.13 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->
Friday Wrap
CL1 $71.64 +4.9% | Brent $76.72 +7.2% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO +4.8% | BNO +4.1% XLE +3.0% | XOP +3.1% See signals before the move ->
