Market Notes

Recurring market reads that explain what mattered after the chart and before the next trade.

Market Notes are the deeper public layer: weekly setups, EIA interpretation, structure reads, and the frameworks traders can keep returning to between headline bursts.

Public notes are intentionally interpretive.

We publish the framework, the read, and the takeaway. The live beta keeps the faster workflow: exact thresholds, deeper panels, and SMS, email, and Slack alerts.

Market NoteJul 15, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w). SPR sits at 325.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1059.7 MMbbl. Commercial: 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w) SPR: 325.7 MMbbl (-5.5 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteJul 13, 20262 min read

Monday Setup

WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.28$/bbl with a +0.13 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.28$/bbl 5-session move: +0.13 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->

Monday Setup context
Monday SetupWTIPrompt Structure
Monday SetupRead note →
Market NoteJul 10, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $71.64 +4.9% | Brent $76.72 +7.2% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO +4.8% | BNO +4.1% XLE +3.0% | XOP +3.1% See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJul 8, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w). SPR sits at 325.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1059.7 MMbbl. Commercial: 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w) SPR: 325.7 MMbbl (-5.5 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteJul 6, 20262 min read

Monday Setup

WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.04$/bbl with a -0.22 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.04$/bbl 5-session move: -0.22 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->

Monday Setup context
Monday SetupWTIPrompt Structure
Monday SetupRead note →
Market NoteJul 3, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $68.19 -2.3% | Brent $71.42 -1.2% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO -1.4% | BNO -1.6% XLE -1.2% | XOP -0.0% See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJul 1, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 743.3 MMbbl (-15.1 w/w). SPR sits at 331.2 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1074.5 MMbbl. Commercial: 743.3 MMbbl (-15.1 w/w) SPR: 331.2 MMbbl (-9.1 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteJun 26, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $69.83 -9.7% | Brent $72.72 -9.8% on the week. USO -4.8% | BNO -4.6% XLE +0.6% | XOP +0.9% See signals before the move -> See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJun 19, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $76.95 -9.4% | Brent $79.85 -8.6% on the week. USO -10.8% | BNO -10.7% XLE -5.9% | XOP -6.2% What this means: Crude and energy equities sold off together, which is the cleaner sign of a broad risk-off or softer-demand read.

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJun 17, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 790.8 MMbbl (-16.0 w/w). SPR sits at 357.1 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1148.0 MMbbl. Commercial: 790.8 MMbbl (-16.0 w/w) SPR: 357.1 MMbbl (-8.0 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteJun 12, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $84.94 -6.2% | Brent $87.74 -5.8% on the week. USO -5.8% | BNO -6.4% XLE -2.8% | XOP -4.4% What this means: Crude and energy equities sold off together, which is the cleaner sign of a broad risk-off or softer-demand read.

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJun 10, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 806.8 MMbbl (-12.4 w/w). SPR sits at 365.1 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1171.9 MMbbl. Commercial: 806.8 MMbbl (-12.4 w/w) SPR: 365.1 MMbbl (-9.1 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteJun 5, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $92.67 +6.1% | Brent $94.95 +4.2% on the week. USO +4.6% | BNO +2.2% XLE +3.2% | XOP +3.7% What this means: Crude and energy equities moved together to the upside, which is a cleaner bullish confirmation than a commodities-only bounce.

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteJun 3, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 819.2 MMbbl (-17.8 w/w). SPR sits at 374.2 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1193.4 MMbbl. Commercial: 819.2 MMbbl (-17.8 w/w) SPR: 374.2 MMbbl (-9.9 w/w)

Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteMay 29, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $87.95 -9.4% | Brent $91.34 -12.2% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO -8.3% | BNO -7.6% XLE -3.7% | XOP -3.3% See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteMay 27, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

Commercial US crude stocks are at 837.0 MMbbl (-12.9 w/w). SPR sits at 384.1 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1221.1 MMbbl. Commercial: 837.0 MMbbl (-12.9 w/w) SPR: 384.1 MMbbl (-8.6 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACommercial Stocks
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteMay 22, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $96.77 -8.2% | Brent $103.60 -5.2% on the week. USO -0.3% | BNO -1.2% XLE +1.8% | XOP +0.8% See signals before the move -> See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteMay 20, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

EIA showed a draw in commercial US crude stocks: 849.9 MMbbl (-7.5 w/w). SPR was 392.7 MMbbl (-5.2 w/w), putting total crude stocks at 1242.6 MMbbl (-12.8 w/w). Commercial crude stocks: 849.9 MMbbl (-7.5 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACrude On Water
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteMay 18, 20262 min read

Monday Setup

CL1 $105.32 -0.1% | Brent $109.06 -0.2% so far today. Vs last week: CL1 +3.2% | Brent +1.5% USO +0.0% | BNO +0.0% What this means: Visible flows still look tight, so downside may struggle to extend unless the physical picture improves.

Monday Setup context
Monday SetupCrude On WaterFlows
Monday SetupRead note →
Market NoteMay 15, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $104.55 +9.6% | Brent $108.35 +7.0% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO +5.9% | BNO +4.7% XLE +3.8% | XOP +1.9% See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteMay 13, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

EIA showed a draw in commercial US crude stocks: 857.4 MMbbl (-13.4 w/w). SPR was 397.9 MMbbl (-7.1 w/w), putting total crude stocks at 1255.3 MMbbl (-20.5 w/w). Commercial crude stocks: 857.4 MMbbl (-13.4 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACrude On Water
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteMay 6, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

EIA showed a draw in commercial US crude stocks: 870.8 MMbbl (-2.2 w/w). SPR was 405.0 MMbbl (-4.1 w/w), putting total crude stocks at 1275.8 MMbbl (-6.3 w/w). Commercial crude stocks: 870.8 MMbbl (-2.2 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACrude On Water
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteMay 1, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $103.76 +9.9% | Brent $110.63 +5.0% on the week. USO +9.2% | BNO +11.1% XLE +4.7% | XOP +5.1% What this means: Crude and energy equities moved together to the upside, which is a cleaner bullish confirmation than a commodities-only bounce.

Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteApr 29, 20262 min read

Wednesday EIA Check

EIA showed a draw in commercial US crude stocks: 873.0 MMbbl (-5.1 w/w). SPR was 409.2 MMbbl (-4.1 w/w), putting total crude stocks at 1282.2 MMbbl (-9.2 w/w). Commercial crude stocks: 873.0 MMbbl (-5.1 w/w)

Wednesday EIA Check context
Wednesday EIA CheckEIACrude On Water
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →
Market NoteApr 27, 20262 min read

Monday Setup

CL1 $94.98 +4.9% | Brent $106.20 +6.7% into the new week. See signals before the move ->

Monday Setup context
Monday SetupCrude On WaterFlows
Monday SetupRead note →
Market NoteApr 24, 20262 min read

Friday Wrap

CL1 $97.68 +7.9% | Brent $107.28 +11.4% on the week. See signals before the move ->

Friday Wrap context
Friday WrapCrude ComplexMarket Notes
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteApr 5, 20266 min read

Start the week with confirmation checks, not just a macro opinion.

A useful Monday setup is less about picking a narrative and more about listing the structure, flow, and inventory signals that would confirm or break that narrative by midweek.

Monday SetupMarket NotesStructure
Monday SetupRead note →
Market NoteApr 2, 20267 min read

Structure often explains the move better than the loudest headline.

By Friday, the cleaner read is whether spreads, cracks, inventories, and freight all leaned the same way or whether the week was driven by a headline that never fully earned confirmation.

Friday WrapBrent-WTICracks
Friday WrapRead note →
Market NoteApr 2, 20266 min read

Commercial crude tells the cleaner prompt-balance story than SPR.

The commercial stock print usually does more of the directional work, while SPR is better treated as reserve-policy context than a like-for-like prompt-balance signal.

EIACrude On WaterInventories
Wednesday EIA CheckRead note →